Gulf states are scrambling to avoid a widening conflict in the Middle East, which would jeopardize their security and ambitious economic reform plans. Their leaders initiated a series of diplomatic contacts after the unprecedented attack launched by Iran on Saturday evening against Israel, which raises the specter of a regional conflagration, against a backdrop of war between the Israeli army and Palestinian Hamas in Gaza.
Geographically, these countries are on the other side of the Gulf from Iran, putting them at the forefront.
Furthermore, military installations of the United States, allies of Israel, are located in the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Heavyweights in the Council, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also already been faced with attacks on oil installations from Yemen’s Houthi rebels, supported by Iran.
In the event of an attack on Iran, Tehran could “be tempted to retaliate against the GCC given its proximity and the multitude of (potential) targets which are difficult to protect”, predicts Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Royal palace in Saudi Arabia.
According to him, “Iran has just learned how difficult it is to reach Israel thousands of kilometers away”, unlike the GCC countries, while Israel said it had foiled the Iranian attack including 350 drones and missiles, almost all of which were intercepted by the anti-aircraft defense of Israel and allied countries.
Avoiding conflict is “a top priority”
The Gulf countries share a conviction: “conflicts are bad for business and avoiding them is now a top priority,” underlines Andreas Krieg, Middle East specialist at King’s College London.
On Sunday, Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan spoke with the emir of Qatar and the kings of Jordan and Bahrain, according to state media, while Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, de facto ruler of the Saudi Arabia, spoke to the Iraqi Prime Minister.
As part of these contacts, the Qatari Prime Minister and the Saudi Foreign Minister spoke with the head of Iranian diplomacy, while the Saudi Defense Minister held talks with his American counterpart. For his part, the Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani discussed Monday with the Iranian president the “need to restrict all forms of escalation and avoid the extension of the conflict in the region”, according to the official Qatari agency.
A conflict would undermine the economic strategy of the Gulf countries
The stakes are high for the rich Gulf countries, long-time allies of the United States: their costly economic diversification plans, aimed at ensuring their post-oil future, are based on a stable environment conducive to business and tourism. The world’s largest crude exporter, Saudi Arabia has launched an ambitious reform program, which aims to transform the ultra-conservative kingdom into a center for business, tourism and sport.
His “top priority” is that “the crisis does not get worse,” says Ali Shihabi.
Saudi Arabia also wants to benefit from its renewed ties with Iran after a long break and from its good relations with the United States. “Saudi Arabia will use its ties with the United States to pressure Israel for a ceasefire in Gaza and not to respond to the Iranian attack” on Israel, said Umer Karim, foreign policy researcher. and Saudi politics at the University of Birmingham.
The importance of Oman and Qatar in the region
Oman, close to Iran, remains an essential mediation channel. And Qatar has the advantage of being home to Al Udeid, the largest American military base in the region, explains Andreas Krieg.
“Regarding the Strait of Hormuz or Bab al-Mandeb, the Omanis have deeper networks and are probably the most effective mediators,” he believes, in reference to the strategic navigation routes of the Gulf and the sea Red.
According to Umer Karim, any further deterioration of the situation would leave no good choice for the Gulf. “The conflict is gradually generating a new regional balance (…) with Israel supported by the United States on one side and Iran” and its allies on the other, he believes.
Meanwhile, an escalation puts the Gulf states “in a very delicate position because they don’t want to side with either side.” But they will be affected no matter what. »